Tesla China retail sales slip in November, facing an almost impossible task to avoid first annual decline
Tesla’s November sales in China are in, and they align with what’s been suspected: the growth story in the world’s largest EV market has effectively stalled for the year.
Giga Shanghai continues producing cars, but local demand appears to be hitting a ceiling. The company now faces a nearly insurmountable hurdle if it wants to avoid a year-over-year drop in 2025.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows Tesla recorded 73,145 domestic deliveries in November 2025. While this is a sizable volume, it represents a slight decline versus November 2024, when Tesla delivered 73,490 units.
That roughly 345-unit difference might look tiny, but in a fast-growing market with fierce competition from BYD and Xiaomi, any contraction is notable.
The outlook worsens when looking at the full year. Throughout 2025, Tesla has struggled to sustain the momentum it had in late 2023 and early 2024, with notable dips earlier in the year—February and October—that set the stage for a tougher finish.
With one month left in 2025, it’s possible to calculate what’s needed for Tesla to match its 2024 total of 657,105 vehicles sold in China.
By end of November, Tesla’s year-to-date retail sales in 2025 stood at 531,855, leaving a gap of 125,250 units.
In plain terms: Tesla would need to deliver more than 125,000 cars in China during December alone just to break even with last year’s numbers.
To put that into perspective, December 2024 represents Tesla’s strongest local month on record, at 82,927 units. Even if every demand lever were pulled—0% financing, insurance subsidies, and FSD transfer schemes—the historical peak and Shanghai’s production capacity don’t support a 125,000-unit December, nor does the retail network have the capacity to deliver such a surge.
Wholesale figures (including exports) peaked around 94,000 in December 2023. If every Shanghai-made car were shifted to local deliveries and exports halted (as they typically are at quarter ends), the shortfall would still exceed 30,000 units.
Electrek’s Take
This marks a sobering moment for Tesla in China. 2025 appears to be a year of retreat for Tesla’s China retail performance.
As the global leader in electrification, Tesla is hard-pressed to grow in the world’s largest and fastest-expanding EV market.
The Model 3 and Model Y remain exceptional vehicles, but they’re increasingly seen as saturated offerings in a market saturated with newer, cheaper options. The data paints a picture of fatigue. While December 2024 saw a powerful push at year’s end (about 82k), the buildup for 2025 simply hasn’t materialized.
That November dip, in what’s typically a strong quarter-end month, serves as the telltale sign: even with incentives, the Model Y lineup and related variants are facing static demand amid a rapidly expanding EV landscape.
Even a hypothetical record December—85,000 vehicles—would still leave 2025 in China down about 6% year over year.
Meanwhile, competitors are growing: Xiaomi up roughly 175% and Xpeng about 70%. That dynamic raises a clear challenge for Tesla.
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