Bitcoin's demand growth has slowed significantly since October 2025, signaling a new bear market cycle, according to analysts at CryptoQuant. This slowdown in investor demand, marked by three distinct waves, has been influenced by various factors. The first wave coincided with the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, the second with the 2024 US presidential election results, and the third with a BTC treasury company bubble. CryptoQuant analysts note that demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025, indicating that the bulk of this cycle's incremental demand has already been realized, thus removing a key pillar of price support. This trend is further supported by the contraction of institutional demand, with a decline of about 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025 in the total amount of Bitcoin held in ETFs, contrasting sharply with the accumulation behavior seen in Q4 2024. Funding rates, the fees paid by perpetual futures traders, have also declined to their lowest levels since December 2023, another signal that BTC has entered a bear market. The analysts' bearish outlook is also bolstered by Bitcoin's price structure breaking down below the 365-day moving average, a critical and dynamic support level for any asset. While some analysts remain hopeful for a better 2026, driven by increased demand and lower interest rates, the overall crypto market sentiment remains firmly in 'fear' territory, with only 22.1% of investors expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates at its next meeting in January. This cautious outlook is further complicated by the political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who faces potential replacement by someone expected to cut rates, despite his term ending in May 2026. This article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough research before making investment decisions, as the market remains volatile and subject to various risks and uncertainties.
